Carbon Black Mensual - N.º 202602

Black Carbon Market Analysis

1. Black Carbon Market Analysis

In February, carbon black prices experienced slight increases to varying degrees. As of February 25, the monthly average price of the main N330 carbon black was: Shandong 6800 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6425 yuan/ton; Hebei 6900 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6850 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6830 yuan/ton.

During the month, the price of raw material coal tar experienced a slight increase, but its impact on carbon black was weak. Due to the decrease in the operating rate of the downstream tire market, the inventory of raw materials was basically completed before the Spring Festival, and the purchase volume decreased throughout the cycle, with only small-scale replenishment transactions and low transaction prices.

The market trading atmosphere gradually declined, and raw material market prices remained high, increasing cost pressure. After the holidays, there were no bids for coal tar, and market participants were in a wait-and-see mode.

However, supported by downstream demand, the raw material market showed an upward trend, and the tire market gradually entered a purchasing state after resuming production. Therefore, there were positive factors supporting the market, and the carbon black market maintained stable prices.

Market Outlook: Looking ahead to next month, coal tar is expected to see some price increases, supporting market sentiment from a cost perspective. Additionally, tire manufacturers are gradually resuming production, leading to a recovery in demand. With these positive factors supporting the market, new carbon black orders are expected to improve.

Comparison of Monthly Average Carbon Black Prices

Upstream Raw Material Market Analysis

2.1 High-Temperature Coal Tar Market Analysis

In February, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued its upward trend. Before the Spring Festival holidays, the market reversed its downward trend and experienced a slight rebound. Auction prices in Linhuan, Anhui Province, recovered first, boosting the confidence of coke plants. Most coke plants had no inventory pressure, while some downstream factories still had replenishment needs. Therefore, market demand remained strong, and with some local supplies still tight, prices in most regions experienced a slight increase.

Only in Inner Mongolia did prices decrease due to the complete shutdown of deep processing facilities in Wuhai and the proximity of the Spring Festival holidays, resulting in reduced transportation capacity and difficulties in external shipments. However, the sales atmosphere clearly improved, and the market as a whole showed a stable to strong trend before the holidays.

After the holidays, the market lacked price guidance and exhibited a wait-and-see attitude. As the market gradually returns to normal and downstream factories resume operations, some factories that operated normally during the holidays have largely depleted their raw material inventories. Coal tar demand remains strong, so the expectation of price increases after the holidays is relatively strong.

2.2 Anthracene Oil Market Analysis

The anthracene oil market experienced a significant decline in February. Before the holidays, new high-temperature coal tar orders stopped falling, which somewhat boosted the selling sentiment of anthracene oil holders. As the Spring Festival holidays approached, the market was affected by logistics and transportation, resulting in variable price increases for anthracene oil in different regions.

Actual prices increased in Shanxi and Shandong, while prices in northwest China remained relatively stable. Downstream carbon black buyers continued to press prices, with limited pre-holiday storage and a generally cautious buying sentiment, limiting the potential for actual price increases.

On the first day of work resumption after the holidays, no new orders were placed in the high-temperature coal tar market, providing insufficient guidance for anthracene oil shipments. Industry players largely remained on the sidelines, with a weak willingness to offer prices. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, with buyers continuing their just-in-time purchasing strategy. The anthracene oil market is expected to find support at its bottom in the short term.

Carbon Black Industry Profit Statistics

In February, the carbon black market saw an improvement in profit margins but remained in a state of loss. Coal tar prices continued to rise, increasing cost pressures. New carbon black orders remained stagnant, with limited market volume. The carbon black market was characterized by high prices but low sales volume, and the market remained unprofitable. Taking Shandong N330 carbon black companies as an example, the average theoretical profit margin for the carbon black industry in February was -93.33 yuan/ton.

Market Operation Rate Statistics for This Month

1. Carbon Black Market Operation Rate Analysis

The carbon black market operation rate in February was 61.93%, a slight decrease compared to January 2026. The Spring Festival holidays extend throughout February, with most companies gradually ceasing operations around February 10 and resuming production around February 22. These insufficient production days will significantly drag down overall capacity utilization for the entire month.

2. Downstream Market Operation Analysis

In February, the operation rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers in China was 47%; the operation rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 38%.

With the Spring Festival holidays, the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers will decrease to around 12% during the holidays. Finished product inventory will decrease. Before the holidays, exports from semi-steel tire manufacturers remained supported, leading to a relatively significant decrease in finished product inventory. After the holidays, as companies gradually resume production, capacity utilization will gradually increase.

During the Spring Festival, many sample companies of all-steel tire manufacturers suspended operations, resulting in a decrease in all-steel tire capacity utilization to around 13%. Finished product inventory will fluctuate slightly before the holidays. From the sixth to the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, companies gradually resumed work and production, and the operation rate will gradually increase. Market demand will also slowly recover. Considering the pressure of social inventory before the holidays, the finished product inventory of production companies may show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing after the holidays.

Production

China's carbon black production in February 2026 is estimated to be 464,400 tons, a decrease of 61,000 tons compared to the previous month, a monthly decrease of 11.48%.

Import and Export Data and Trend Chart

According to customs data, my country's carbon black imports in December were 23,600 tons, a monthly increase of 45.74% and a year-on-year increase of 0.28%. The cumulative import volume was 313,000 tons, a cumulative import volume increase of 3.66% compared to the same period last year.

According to customs data, my country's carbon black exports in December 2025 totaled 115,700 tons, a monthly increase of 21.95% and a year-on-year increase of 9.32%. Cumulative exports reached 1,178,200 tons, an increase of 21.95% compared to the same period last year.

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