Análisis de contrato PVC 2601, 24 de septiembre

PVC Futures Analysis: On September 24th, the PVC2601 contract saw a narrow range of price fluctuations in the evening session, with the direction of the price fluctuation unclear. The trend of small fluctuations continued after the morning session, with a relatively significant increase in the afternoon price. However, after reaching a high of 4956, the price turned slightly lower.

El contrato PVC2601 abrió en 4899, alcanzó un máximo de 4956 y un mínimo de 4869, con una amplitud de 87. Las posiciones disminuyeron en 12.387 lotes, quedando 1.111.748 lotes abiertos. El precio de liquidación fue de 4903, 52 puntos por debajo del precio de liquidación de ayer, que fue de 4903. El volumen diario de operaciones fue de 902.670 lotes, con depósitos por valor de 3.828 mil millones de yuanes y salidas por valor de 20,62 millones de yuanes.

Regional Price Summary: Yuan/ton

Regional Price Summary: Yuan/ton

Mercado Spot de PVC:

The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market showed mixed trends, with a slight decline in the morning followed by a slight increase in the afternoon. Comparing price assessments: North China saw a 10 yuan/ton increase, East China saw a 10 yuan/ton increase, South China remained stable, Northeast China saw a 10 yuan/ton increase, Central China saw a 10 yuan/ton increase, and Southwest China saw a 30 yuan/ton decrease. Ex-factory prices for upstream PVC manufacturers remained stable in some regions, while others saw slight decreases of 20-30-50 yuan/ton. Due to the low futures price, upstream manufacturers were volatile in their quoting. The spot market fell in the morning, creating a sluggish market atmosphere. However, in the afternoon, as futures prices rose, prices recovered and continued to rise slightly by 10-20 yuan/ton. Basis adjustments were minimal. Basis quotes for the 01 contract in East China were -110, -150, -220, in South China -100, -200, in North China -400, -430, -470, and in Southwest China, with some sources, the 01 contract was -280-480-660. After the afternoon spot price adjustment in both markets, spot market activity weakened.

The spot market fell in the morning, creating a sluggish market atmosphere. However, in the afternoon, as futures prices rose, prices recovered and continued to rise slightly by 10-20 yuan/ton. Basis adjustments were minimal. Basis quotes for the 01 contract in East China were -110, -150, -220, in South China -100, -200, in North China -400, -430, -470, and in Southwest China, with some sources, the 01 contract was -280-480-660. After the afternoon spot price adjustment in both markets, spot market activity weakened.

PVCPrevisión de mercado:

Futures: PVC 2601 futures prices saw a significant rise in the afternoon, failing to decline from yesterday's level, indicating a temporary downward trend. Overall commodity sentiment improved in the afternoon, with the cultural commodities index rising.

La tendencia del precio de futuros del PVC reflejó la de los productos culturales, lo que demuestra que, incluso con un sentimiento general relativamente constante hacia las materias primas, una tendencia de mercado separada solo puede surgir con fundamentos únicos. Técnicamente, las Bandas de Bollinger (13, 13 y 2) continúan mostrando una tendencia plana, y la línea diaria KD permanece en una cruz de muerte. Las recientes fluctuaciones del volumen del mercado han sido mínimas, y tanto las posiciones largas como cortas siguen prácticamente inactivas. A corto plazo, es probable que los precios de futuros oscilen dentro de un rango amplio de 4850 a 5050.

Spot:

Overall commodity sentiment improved in the afternoon, with most major domestic futures contracts seeing gains at the midday close. Glass prices rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping lines to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%.

PVC futures also rose, but the surge was unsustainable. The stock market showed a positive upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.28%. Overall commodity sentiment improved in the afternoon, with most major domestic futures contracts seeing gains at the midday close. Glass prices rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping lines to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%.

PVC futures also rose, but the surge was unsustainable. The stock market showed a positive upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.28%. 

Looking back at market trends in 2024, commodity prices began to show a turning point since policy measures began on the 24th. However, domestic policy news has yet to provide a clear guiding force. Furthermore, PVC supply and demand factors are providing insufficient guidance on prices. Overseas, crude oil futures rebounded after a four-day losing streak, as recent geopolitical support offset the impact of oversupply.

Furthermore, negotiations on an agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan have encountered obstacles, alleviating some investors' concerns about global oversupply. In the short term, the spot market will likely remain range-bound until a further turning point is seen.

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Furthermore, negotiations on an agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan have encountered obstacles, alleviating some investors' concerns about global oversupply. In the short term, the spot market will likely remain range-bound until a further turning point is seen.

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