Caída del mercado de PVC el 14 de octubre de 2025

Análisis de Futuros de PVC:El precio del contrato PVC2601 comenzó a disminuir en la sesión nocturna del 14 de octubre, alcanzando un máximo de 4721 y luego debilitándose continuamente. A partir de la sesión matutina, el precio siguió fluctuando estrechamente en un nivel bajo.

Although there was a slight correction in the afternoon, the decline was minor, and the all-day low was refreshed. The PVC2601 contract opened at 4717, reached a high of 4721, and a low of 4665, with a spread of 56. Opening positions increased by 19,246 lots, bringing the total open interest to 1,254,279 lots.

El precio de liquidación fue de 4684. El precio de liquidación de ayer fue de 4720, una disminución de 36. El volumen diario de operaciones fue de 736.644 lotes. Fondos depositados: 4.120 millones de yuanes, y entradas: 38,14 millones de yuanes.

Regional Price Summary: Yuan/ton

The settlement price was 4684. Yesterday's settlement price was 4720, down 36. Daily trading volume was 736,644 lots. Deposited funds: 4.12 billion yuan, and inflows: 38.14 million yuan.

Regional Price Summary: Yuan/ton

PVC Spot Market:Los precios de transacción predominantes en el mercado nacional del PVC continuaron disminuyendo, rompiendo esencialmente por debajo del mínimo anterior. Comparando las estimaciones de precios, estos cayeron en 20 yuanes/tonelada en el norte de China, entre 10 y 50 yuanes/tonelada en el este de China, entre 20 y 40 yuanes/tonelada en el sur de China, entre 30 y 40 yuanes/tonelada en el noreste de China, 20 yuanes/tonelada en el centro de China y 30 yuanes/tonelada en el suroeste de China.

Upstream PVC manufacturers are still experiencing price corrections, with ex-factory prices falling by 30-50 yuan/ton. Upstream manufacturers are skeptical about their offers, and orders haven't changed significantly after the price cuts. Futures prices are declining, hitting new lows.

Upstream PVC manufacturers are still experiencing price corrections, with ex-factory prices falling by 30-50 yuan/ton. Upstream manufacturers are skeptical about their offers, and orders haven't changed significantly after the price cuts. Futures prices are declining, hitting new lows.

Spot market bids are mostly lower, and basis spreads are narrowing significantly. Basis spreads for the 01 contract are -(30, -100, -130) in East China, -(10, -50) in South China, -(300, -350) in North China, and -(200, -300) for some sources in Southwest China. While basis spread offers offer trading advantages, downstream buyers are less enthusiastic about taking delivery. Until clear market support emerges, spot market activity is expected to remain subdued.

PVC Market Forecast:

Futures:

The PVC 2601 contract price has broken its previous low in the main continuation, reaching 4665, the year's lowest point. The price has fallen below the lower support level four times in a row, signaling a full bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands (13, 13, and 2) have all turned downward, and the daily KD and MACD lines continue to form a death cross. The market continues to see a slight increase in open interest.

As of now, the total open interest in the 2601 contract is 1,254,279 lots, still dominated by short positions. This bearish technical outlook stems from insufficient fundamental and policy guidance. Given the early stages of the fourth quarter, futures prices are expected to face some pressure in the short term. The downward range of 4650-4700 remains under observation.The PVC 2601 contract price has broken its previous low in the main continuation, reaching 4665, the year's lowest point. The price has fallen below the lower support level four times in a row, signaling a full bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands (13, 13, and 2) have all turned downward, and the daily KD and MACD lines continue to form a death cross. The market continues to see a slight increase in open interest.

As of now, the total open interest in the 2601 contract is 1,254,279 lots, still dominated by short positions. This bearish technical outlook stems from insufficient fundamental and policy guidance. Given the early stages of the fourth quarter, futures prices are expected to face some pressure in the short term. The downward range of 4650-4700 remains under observation.

Spot market: The Cultural Goods Index continued its downward trend, closing at a low of 159.36, reflecting negative sentiment across commodities. With the potential for a golden September rally missed and no signs of a silver October looming, overall commodity prices are starting the fourth quarter on a weak note. For the 2601 contract, the current low in both the futures and spot markets has already broken below the previous low, reaching its lowest point in 2025.

Supply and demand factors are failing to provide significant support for prices in both markets, with high supply, weak demand, and elevated inventories continuing to weigh, coupled with subdued export expectations. International oil prices closed higher, recovering some of the losses from last Friday.

The US President softened his rhetoric toward China over the weekend, while ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine provided some upward momentum. However, the prospect of oversupply is limiting price gains. Overall, the spot market is expected to remain subdued in the short term.

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The US President softened his rhetoric toward China over the weekend, while ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine provided some upward momentum. However, the prospect of oversupply is limiting price gains. Overall, the spot market is expected to remain subdued in the short term.

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