11 de mayo Noticias diarias de macroeconomía

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1、CITICS: Demand for new energy vehicles is expected to recover in the second quarter.

2、Economy Daily: Exploring a new model for the development of the real estate industry

3、The pilot program of digital Yuan is being pushed forward in-depth, and there is potential for prepayment management applications

4、MOST and SASAC held a working conference jointly

International News

1、Saudi Aramco will supply specified quantities of crude oil to several North Asian refineries in June

2、NBC: USD/CAD to remain in the range of 1.33-1.38 next quarter

3、Russia reduces its oil production by 443,000 barrels/day in April, which nearly reaches the target

4、The Biden administration plans to buy oil later this year, leading to a rise in oil prices

More details:

Domestic News

1、CITICS: Demand for new energy vehicles is expected to recover in the second quarter.

Citic Securities (CITICS) pointed out that in the first quarter of 2023, the subsidies slope back to lead to a partial overdraft of demand at the end of 2022, coupled with the sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices, car companies cut prices, consumers are playing a waiting game, the overall sales growth of new energy vehicles slowed. It is expected that in the second quarter, with the stabilization of lithium carbonate prices, new energy vehicle demand is expected to pick up. In addition, energy storage is also expected to continue high growth. From a global perspective, China's electronic supply chain is rapidly developing and most completed, and leading companies have supplied overseas, highlighting its value as a global high-quality manufacturing asset. Recommended with global competitiveness of new energy vehicles supply chain and segmentation industry high-quality enterprises.

2、Economy Daily: Exploring a new model for the development of the real estate industry

An article in the Economic Daily pointed out that developing rental housing during the transformation of urban villages is beneficial for solving the housing problems of urban residents through a combination of renting and purchasing, and is worth promoting and learning from. The active and steady promotion of urban village transformation in mega and super cities is an important manifestation of urban renewal. Urban village transformation can better relocate urban village residents and improve their living environment. Regions should focus on guaranteeing rental housing and continue to promote the planning and construction of affordable housing. China has completed the top-level design of affordable housing and will accelerate the improvement of the housing security system based on public rental housing, guaranteed rental housing, and shared ownership housing. When new urban residents and young people's economic conditions improve but they still cannot afford to purchase regular commodity housing due to various conditions, they can choose to purchase shared ownership housing as a form of affordable housing, sharing ownership of the property with the government and reducing the pressure of purchasing a house.

3、The pilot program of digital Yuan is being pushed forward in-depth, and there is potential for prepayment management applications

As reported by China Securities Journal, the progress of commercial banks and fintech firms in the field of digital yuan has been exposed following the disclosure of the 2022 annual reports and 2023 first-quarter reports of listed companies. In 2022, system transformation, smart contracts, and hardware wallet development have become keywords for various companies, and many achievements have been made in the expansion of the application scenarios and transaction scale of digital yuan. Industry insiders believe that digital yuan is expected to play an important role in the field of prepayment management in the future. In addition, this year's consumer coupon activities and large conferences in various regions are also expected to promote the wider application of digital yuan.

4、MOST and SASAC held a working conference jointly

The Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a working conference. Wang Zhigang with the Minister of Science and Technology stressed that the central enterprises should be supported to the major needs of the country, focus on the key areas and stranglehold problems, and resolutely win the battle of key core technologies to effectively maintain national industrial security. Increase the investment in basic research and improve the ability of original innovation.

International News

1、Saudi Aramco will supply specified quantities of crude oil to several North Asian refineries in June

Saudi Aramco has released the news to at least five customers in North Asia that they will supply them with specified volumes of crude oil in June, insiders said on Wednesday. The move comes after Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, cut the official selling price of all crude grades sold to Asia in June due to low refining margins. Margin issues have prompted refiners to seek cheaper supplies from the spot market and even consider lower run rates.

2、NBC: USD/CAD to remain in the range of 1.33-1.38 next quarter

In a report by the National Bank of Canada (NBC), analysts predict that USD/CAD will remain within the range of 1.33-1.38 next quarter. The bank's economists noted that the Canadian dollar has strengthened in recent weeks, gaining nearly 5 cents against the US dollar. The resilience of the Canadian economy and a less dovish policy adopted by NBC have resulted in a significant reduction in the US-Canada interest rate differential since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Looking ahead, it is unlikely that the Canadian dollar will benefit from the continuing narrowing of interest rate differentials. In addition, given the recent decline in bulk commodity prices, we expect that USD/CAD will remain within the range of 1.33-1.38 next quarter.

3、Russia reduces its oil production by 443,000 barrels/day in April, which nearly reaches the target

According to insiders, the Russian Ministry of Energy has stated that the country's oil production in April almost reached its target level. In March, the Kremlin pledged to cut daily crude oil production by 500,000 barrels and maintain this level until December, in response to Western sanctions that included price ceilings implemented by the G7. However, there have been no signs of reduced crude oil flow from ports so far. Insiders say that the Ministry's data showed that Russia's average daily crude oil production in April was 1.319 million tons. If converted based on the ratio of 7.33 barrels per ton, this is equivalent to 9.67 million barrels per day, which is lower by 443,000 barrels per day compared to the production level in February, which is the benchmark for the production cut.

4、The Biden administration plans to buy oil later this year, leading to a rise in oil prices

After completing maintenance work later this year, the Biden administration plans to purchase oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The administration previously stated that it plans to replenish the stockpile when oil prices reach around $70 per barrel, but did not specify a time. In a statement released on Tuesday, the US Department of Energy (DOE) said, "The US SPR remains the largest in the world and the Department remains committed to replenishing the SPR in a manner that provides the greatest value to American taxpayers and protects US national security interests while adhering to congressional requirements and conducting necessary maintenance, which is part of good management." Following the announcement, oil prices rose, erasing the previous 1% drop.

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