Análisis de mercado de una semana de PVC(3.1-3.5)

1. Analysis Of Domestic PVC Market

1.1. Review Of Domestic PVC Market

This week (2021.3.1-2021.3.5), the price of domestic PVC market showed the situation of first falling, then rising and then falling. In terms of valuation comparison, North China rose by 15 yuan / ton, East China rose by 65-75 yuan / ton, South China fell by 70 yuan / ton, Northeast China rose by 50 yuan / ton, central China fell by 50-75 yuan / ton, and southwest China fell by 25 yuan / ton.   

From the trend of PVC market showing in the week, since the beginning of week, the market price has declined sharply, the main areas are mostly down 200-300 yuan / ton, while the market continued to decline on Tuesday, but the downward range slowed down. The market rose again under the guidance of futures on Wednesday, but the market was not strong enough to move up and down on Thursday and Friday. The main reason for the sharp decline of market price is the accumulation of social inventory. Since the downstream products enterprises have stopped work and holiday before the Spring Festival, the major large-scale products enterprises have maintained the commencement. Overall calculation shows that the industry commencement rate is about 30%, and the consumption of PVC raw materials is less. Downstream products enterprises mostly start after Lantern Festival, and the actual demand does not show a release. Although the price after the Spring Festival presents a large amount However, after the price rises, the majority of traders receive goods. The crazy price rise leads to the phenomenon of the traders' reverse goods called normal, some of the goods are connected to the high level, and the continuous jump of futures has caused the market a false impact of 9000 yuan. The high-level goods source has not carried out corresponding hedging, so the high price in the case of downstream conflict, resulting in poor shipping market, The transaction was light and inventory gradually accumulated. The futures decline led to the traders' continuous price reduction and selling, in order to reduce spot losses. After the market price went down, it began to show a point price active trend near 8200-8300. The transaction was still acceptable in the middle of the week. The futures rebounded to above 8500 and also led to a short upward trend of spot. Overall, although the PVC market price is still at a high level, upstream production enterprises are poor in pre-sale, and the high-level downstream products enterprises are not following up enough, and social inventory is still increasing, and it is expected to go to the warehouse in March. From downstream products, there are measures to raise prices in the soft products industry and thin profile, but the terminal acceptance is general, especially in the pipe and profile enterprises, the terminal order reduction phenomenon exists. At present, downstream products enterprises still have a conflict with the price of PVC raw materials.

Futures: 05 contract fluctuates violently in each day of the week, with sharp rise and fall. The fluctuation range of the whole day is more than 300 points. In terms of recent fluctuation range, the lower support point is 8100-8150, but the upper pressure level is obviously between 8700-8900.

1.2. Market Analysis of Domestic Mainstream Consumer Areas

    North China: the atmosphere of PVC market in Hebei is not good, the price is mainly fluctuating in the week, the lower reaches of the bargain hunting replenishment, futures callback shock. Type 5 materials are delivered at 8440-8530 yuan / ton with VAT, 7890-7980 yuan / ton without VAT, 8200-8300 yuan / ton from Inner Mongolia factory, and some lower prices have been heard.

East China: the price quotation of PVC market in Changzhou is chaotic, rising first and falling later in the week, and loosening on Friday. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the overall trading is not warm. The mainstream reference of 5-type calcium carbide is 8320-8450 yuan / ton (excluding loading), and the spot price offer is about v05, Yihua + 60, yinglite and Jintai + 70, Xinchuan and Jintai + 80, Zhongtai + 100, Beiyuan and Tianye + 130.

South China: the PVC market in Guangzhou has a general turnover, and the quotation is going down one after another. The main stream of ordinary 5-type calcium carbide is 8380-8530 yuan / ton, salt lake / Sanlian newspaper is 8400 yuan / ton, elun / Lutai / Xinfa newspaper is 8530 yuan / ton, Junzheng / Yili / Tianye newspaper is 8550 yuan / ton. The price of ethylene process fluctuated little, with Dagu 700 / 800 / 1000 at 9150 yuan / ton and Dagu 1300 at 9700 yuan / ton.

China's PVC export quotation remains at US $1300-1400 / T Fob main port. Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd. of Taiwan, China, is expected to issue a new quotation in April next Tuesday, and the market is expected to increase more than US $100 / T. in view of the start of overhaul of some units of Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd. next week. The Indian market price heard that the high-end quotation is US $1700-1800 / T CFR. Indian customers said that the current market did not hear the quotation of US goods. The local quotation in India is 142 rupees / kg, which is 4-6 rupees higher than last week. Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd. of Taiwan, China originally planned to overhaul its 540000t / a PVC plant in March, but due to the production reduction of Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd. in Texas, the expected overhaul or reduction has not yet been confirmed. The overhaul is initially scheduled to start next week to cooperate with the pipeline overhaul and maintenance of upstream raw material plant in the southern plant.

1.3. Future Forecast

TDD forecast: although domestic downstream product enterprises start to work one after another, they still have insufficient digestion of PVC inventory. At present, it is not easy for product enterprises to raise the price of orders, the terminal has obvious resistance to the price increase, and the cost transfer of product enterprises is not smooth. For the high PVC purchase price, there is obvious resistance psychology, low enthusiasm to take the goods, just need to purchase and maintain order production, and traders still have high price sources, so they sell. The transaction of firm offer is light, and there is still accumulated risk in inventory. From the perspective of supply side, PVC enterprises have high profits at present. No enterprise has reported a long-term maintenance plan in the short term, and the supply is slightly abundant. Although the import has digested part of the inventory, the current depopulation is still not obvious. The overall domestic PVC price is chaotic, and the mentality of all parties in the market is different. First of all, the upstream PVC production enterprises did not report a higher ex factory price within a week, which made the high price list more difficult for traders in the early stage, while the traders expected the futures to turn red and rise, but the market acceptance was poor, and the high transaction was always difficult. At present, the seasonal accumulation of PVC has not been effectively removed. Although the import digested part of the inventory, but at present, the downstream product enterprises still have the psychology of resistance to the high price. In March, social inventory is expected to be digested. In the short term, the domestic PVC market price will enter the shock period.

2. PVC Paste Resin

2.1. Market analysis of PVC (paste resin) this week

    This week (2021.3.1-2021.3.5), the price of domestic PVC paste resin manufacturers rose slightly. At present, the market supply segment is stable and the market demand is good. The pre-sale of PVC paste resin enterprises is good, and some brands are queuing up for delivery. The price of PVC paste resin large plate is 13000-16000 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of paste resin glove material in East China market is 24000-26000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is low.

Future forecast of TDD: sufficient calcium carbide support at the cost end and recovery of downstream demand. At present, there are many domestic glove production lines, and there is a glove production line with capacity expansion at the end of April, so there is still a large space for future market demand. The pre-sale of enterprises is in good condition. It is expected that in the future, the output of market materials will decline, the supply of market goods may be tight, and the price will have an upward trend.

2.2. Statistics of PVC Paste Manufacturers Starting This Week

This week (2021.3.1-2021.3.5), the operating rate of PVC paste resin enterprises was about 84.65%. Affected by environmental protection inspection and power rationing, the operating rate of individual enterprises fell slightly. On the 19th, the capacity expansion unit of Inner Mongolia Chemical Co., Ltd. of China Salt ignited, and the total capacity of China Salt Jilantai was 90000 tons. The PV paste resin plant (100000 tons / year) of Xiyang Chemical Co., Ltd. of Yangmei group was affected by the two sessions, and the start-up time of the plant was postponed to the end of March The production capacity of paste resin plant is 90000 tons, and the normal shipment is at present; the PVC paste resin plant (80000 tons / year) of Tangshan Sanyou Group Co., Ltd., which produces glove materials in double line, has been affected by power restriction in recent days, and the start-up has declined.

3. Key Analysis of Related Chlor-Alkali Products

3.1. Calcium Carbide

This week (2021.3.1-2021.3.5), the domestic calcium carbide market price continued to rise. The price increase of downstream PVC gives support to calcium carbide. In addition, the current high starting load of PVC enterprises makes the factory actively purchase calcium carbide, and continuously increases the purchase price to attract the supply of goods. The overall demand for calcium carbide remains at a high level, with the price increase range of 200-300 yuan / ton. Due to environmental protection problems, the shortage of calcium carbide Market at this stage is aggravating, and the number of downstream purchasers waiting for unloading has shrunk. It is expected that the market price of calcium carbide will continue to rise next week. In terms of receiving price: the receiving price in Shandong is 4040-4260 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Hebei is 4050-4075 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Dagu is 4060 yuan / ton (dangerous chemical vehicles); the receiving price in Beiyuan of Shaanxi is 3740-3780 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Henan is 4100-4120 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Northeast is 4130-4190 yuan / ton; the pick-up price in Shanxi is 3700 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Sichuan is 4100-4120 yuan / ton The regional purchase price is 3420 yuan / ton.

3.2. Crude Oil

    Crude oil futures closed higher as US benchmark crude oil futures set their highest closing price since 2019, as OPEC and its allies said they would extend their current production reduction measures to the end of April on the grounds that demand recovered from the new crown boom remained fragile. The settlement price of West Texas Intermediate oil, which was delivered by the NYSE in April, rose $2.55, or 4.2 percent, to $63.83 a barrel, the highest settlement price for the recent month since April 30, 2019. The global benchmark Brent crude oil futures for delivery on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ice) rose $2.67 to $66.74 a barrel, or 4.2 percent, the highest settlement price since February 25.

OPEC and its allies agreed to extend most oil production cuts to April, allowing Russia and Kazakhstan to increase production slightly. Russia was allowed to increase 13000 barrels / day in April and Kazakhstan was allowed to increase 20000 barrels / day to meet domestic demand, according to an agreement reached on Thursday. OPEC and its allies surprised market makers by extending the deal until April, after some market makers expected OPEC and its allies to ease measures. In addition, Saudi Arabia, OPEC's leader, said it would extend a million barrels per day of voluntary additional production cuts.

4. Statistics of PVC Plant Operation Rate This Week

This week (2021.3.1-2021.3.5), the weekly average operating rate of PVC production enterprises was 88.41%, with a month on month increase of 1.25% and a year-on-year increase of 17.62%. Among them, the operation rate of calcium carbide method was 89.00%, increased by 0.79% on a month on month basis, and increased by 13.97% on a year-on-year basis; the operation rate of ethylene method was 86.11%, increased by 3.09% on a month on month basis, and increased by 32.02% on a year-on-year basis.

5. Price Analysis of International Market

5.1. International VCM Market Price This Week

International VCM: March 5: CFR Far East 1139-1141 rose 30, CFR Southeast Asia 1219-1221 rose 50, FOB northwest Europe 1008-1012 rose 30, Fas Houston 1165-1175 stable.

5.2. International PVC Market Price This Week

    International PVC: March 3: Germany, the Netherlands and France 1203-1207 rose 75, Britain 1065-1067 rose 75, Southeast Asia 1359-1361 rose 70.