Mercado negro de carbono semanal-20260108

Carbon Black Market Analysis

1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis

This week, domestic carbon black prices generally showed a clear upward trend. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6250 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6000 yuan/ton; Hebei 6300 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6250 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6250 yuan/ton.

Following a significant increase in coal tar bidding as a raw material, new order prices in the regional carbon black market rose. However, new order prices in the tire market were at a relatively low level before the price increase, leading to more small-order transactions. Although transaction pressure persisted during the cycle, significant market losses resulted in negotiations to maintain new order carbon black prices, sustaining a relatively strong trend in the later period.

1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis

According to TuDuoDuo data, as of January 8, the carbon black price index was 6205, an increase of 376.5 compared to the previous cycle.

2. Raw Material Market Analysis

2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar

The downward trend in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market abruptly stopped this week. Since the week before New Year's Day, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has entered an upward channel, with an increase of 300-400 yuan/ton this week. Due to high operating rates of downstream factories, demand for coal tar is strong. Additionally, the operating rate of coking plants has been declining since December, resulting in a slight decrease in coal tar supply. The supply and demand situation in the market shows temporary tightness, driving up coal tar prices. Furthermore, most downstream products, especially coal pitch, have followed relatively well. Therefore, there are currently no evident negative factors in the market, and the coal tar market is expected to remain strong in the short term.

2.2 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Anthracene Oil

This period saw a significant increase in new orders for the raw material, high-temperature coal tar. The substantial cost increase provided some support to the anthracene oil market but also exerted pressure on the profits of the deep processing coal tar industry. Manufacturers generally maintained their quotations with substantial increases, while the downstream carbon black market had limited room for further price increases and showed a negative attitude toward accepting significantly higher raw material prices. The anthracene oil hydrogenation market continued buying on dips, while existing holders maintained firm offers, limiting downstream price pressure. Overall, transactions showed a substantial upward trend.

3. Carbon Black Market Outlook

Looking ahead to the next period, new orders for the coal tar market as a raw material are likely to increase rather than decrease. Supported by costs, the carbon black market is expected to maintain firm prices. Additionally, the short-term loss situation in the carbon black market is unlikely to change, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices. The market is expected to maintain relatively strong consolidation in new orders.

4. Carbon Black N330 Industry Profit Analysis

The increase in carbon black market quotations, along with a significant rise in coal tar prices as a raw material, has led to substantial losses in the carbon black market. So far, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -748 yuan/ton, a significant decrease compared to last week.

5. Market Operation Rate Statistics This Week

5.1 Carbon Black Market Operation Rate Analysis

The operating rate of carbon black enterprises remained relatively stable. Large factories in Shandong and Shanxi provinces operated at higher rates due to heating and gas supply tasks, while some smaller factories reduced their operating rates to offset losses. Southern regions maintained low operating rates for an extended period. Overall, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises remained relatively stable.

5.2 Downstream Market Operation Rate Analysis

The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 64%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 56%.

During the week, some enterprises remained closed for maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, gradually resuming operations around the 4th. Production schedules did not operate normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Shipments were slow during the cycle, and inventory reduction was slower than expected.

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