Mercado de caucho semanal-20260108

1. Rubber Spot Market Analysis

This week, rubber spot prices experienced a slight upward trend. Domestic production areas have largely entered the low-tapping season. Currently, there is restocking activity in the international market, and Thai raw material prices continue to rise, strengthening cost support for rubber. Downstream demand for high-priced rubber is weak, which somewhat limits the upward movement of rubber prices, resulting in a short-term upward but volatile price trend.

This week, natural latex spot prices continued to rise. Traders were relatively active in offering prices. Futures prices fluctuated at high levels. USD-denominated shipment prices from Southeast Asian processing plants continued to rise, leading to a profit margin for traders restocking at a loss. Meanwhile, spot pressure in sales areas was not significant, supporting further increases in spot prices. Downstream product manufacturers were only inquiring about immediate needs and were cautious about restocking high-priced raw materials. Transaction volumes need further monitoring.

Market Forecast:
1. Rainy weather will continue to have a disruptive impact, with gradual raw material releases.
2. The operating rate of sample tire manufacturers is expected to decrease in the next cycle.
3. Inventory levels in Qingdao, China, continue to accumulate.
4. Exchange rates and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, etc.

2. Natural Rubber Supply Analysis

2.1 Thailand Production Area

International demand for dry rubber improved, cup lump rubber purchase prices increased, and factories continued to pay premiums, leading to a shift in latex production and a subsequent rise in latex prices. Thai factories maintained raw material inventories of approximately 1-2 months, with some reaching around 3 months, lower than the same period last year. Restocking in Europe and India provided support, and factories maintained a positive sales sentiment, with shipments scheduled for March-August.

2.2 Vietnam Production Area

This week, temperatures in Vietnam decreased, leading to a reduction in dry rubber content and signs of seasonal production decline. Although latex orders were slightly weaker, a recovery in 3L and TSR10 rubber orders provided support, maintaining factory purchasing activity and raising raw material prices.

2.3 Yunnan Production Area

This week, raw material prices in Yunnan remained stable as the region entered its low season.

2.4 Hainan Production Area

This week, as temperatures gradually decreased in Hainan, the area where rubber tapping ceased expanded further. Only a few scattered rubber plantations along the western route and some areas in the south remained in operation. The total amount of rubber available for harvest across the island was relatively scarce, and raw material purchase prices fluctuated only slightly. This marks the end of the natural rubber tapping season in Hainan. Local processing plants have gradually closed, and winter storage reserves are at a lower level than in previous years, leading to a relatively cautious shipping disposition.

3. Natural Rubber Cost and Profit Situation Analysis

3.1 Overseas Production Area: Thailand

The theoretical production profit of STR20 in Thailand improved compared to the previous week. This week, cup lump prices increased, along with the appreciation of the Thai baht, raising cost pressure on factories. However, strong futures prices boosted factory offers, domestic arbitrageurs increased their positions, and international restocking sentiment improved, resulting in many factories selling at higher prices. The increase in finished product prices outpaced that of raw materials, leading to an improvement in the theoretical production profit of STR20 compared to the previous week.

3.2 Domestic Production Area: Hainan

The natural rubber tapping season in Hainan is coming to an end; local processing plants are gradually closing.

4. Natural Rubber Demand Analysis

4.1. Downstream Dry Rubber

The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 64%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 56%.

During the week, some companies were still closed for maintenance during the New Year holiday, gradually resuming work around the 4th day. Production schedules did not operate normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Shipments were slow during the cycle, and inventory reduction was slower than expected.

4.2. Downstream Concentrated Latex

It is understood that foam factories in Wenzhou are operating at approximately 50% capacity, with some differences between large and small factories. Although finished product sales have shown some signs of recovery due to the boost from e-commerce promotions like "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," overall, actual shipments have not improved significantly and are lower than the same period last year. Processing plants face inventory accumulation pressure, and increasing operating rates still faces significant obstacles. In terms of raw material inventory, large factories currently have about one month of inventory, while small and medium-sized enterprises are primarily restocking their supplies, with a general wait-and-see attitude prevailing. Attention should be paid to changes in demand.

It is understood that glove factories in northern China are operating at an average capacity of around 60%. The glove industry is gradually entering its low season, with domestic finished product sales orders generally weak and the impact of substitutes leading to cautious restocking intentions among factories. Currently, raw material and finished product inventory levels at processing plants are generally low. As the end of the year approaches, some companies show signs of temporary stocking, but the actual sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. Continuous monitoring of demand is necessary.

5. Natural Rubber Price Spread Chart

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